Form 4 Trust trends

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This topic contains 3 replies, has 4 voices, and was last updated by  DanJ 5 months, 3 weeks ago.

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  • #87649

    whamp whamp
    • Posts: 5
    Join Date: 03/28/2018

    Based on the scatter graph, Form 4 Trust wait times seem to be decreasing quite predictably. Based on the last 4 submissions in mid-September (ignoring the outlier in October) wait times were roughly 184 days or just over 6 months. 6 months before that, we were looking at almost 300 days. About a 39% reduction. Assuming the trend continues, if one were to submit paperwork today we are looking at 112 days, or less than 4 months. Do you think this could happen in reality?

  • #87657

    • Posts: 11
    Join Date: 03/28/2018

    I don’t think you will see it continue to trend down at the same rate. They pulled personnel from reviewing individual forms to bring down the trust time, and eventually they will have to start hammering on individual forms again. I think both trusts and individual forms will level out around the 6-8 month time frame until new personnel is hired or the process is changed.

  • #87667

    T D Emory
    • Posts: 4
    Join Date: 03/28/2018

    I disagree with the assumption that wait times will level out at 6-8 months. My first stamps were just approved, with pending dates 15 days apart in September, but approved 7 days apart in March.

    Last summer/fall, the HPA seemed like it might be close to passing, which I think caused a lot of would-be buyers to delay purchase. That lends to further downtrend on the wait times chart.

    The other trend I think is contributing to lower wait times is the lull in gun sales since the election (see: Remington bankruptcy)

    Lastly, the ATF is aiming for 90 days or less. I believe they will get there one way or another.

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 4 weeks ago by  T D Emory.
    • #87728

      • Posts: 6
      Join Date: 03/28/2018

      I agree with all of your statements except for the last sentence and hope that I am wrong. Having an affiliation with the Fed going on 30 yrs now, I can tell you that when it comes to a target to aim for like you described of 90 or less days; they might as well be playing horse shoes with a large margin for attaining that goal.
      I hope it does go to 90 or less though.

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