Reply To: Form 4 Individual

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B Thompson
  • Posts: 4
Join Date: 12/05/2019

You’re totally right, it’s just a sliding scale with no rhyme or reason, and there’s absolutely no reason for you to look into it deeper but to conclude that it’s simply random. You’re right, you simply can’t see this on the graph in the trends:

3 months – expedited system that was taken away due to complaints
8-10 months – standard wait time for those who submitted prior to expedited system.
10+ months – (generally speaking) people who screwed up their application, left out their SSN, or have other issues that caused a delay in the FBI system.

You nailed it bro. That graph indicates no verifiable trends that can be clearly seen. Those dots and dot-trends represent mere randomness. That’s usually how I think as well.. I just see something that upsets me from a wait-time perspective, and I attribute it to mere randomness and complain. I see variances in numbers: randomness. I see expedited times for some: randomness.

Toonz had a legitimate reason to call because his application was actually late and they forgot to mail it. 98+% of us won’t ever have that happen, and calling when it’s late by a few weeks can help you track down mere clerical errors or verify if you are in FBI black hole. If I had a submission in July during the expedited process time frame, I’d call right now because it’s actually late. If I had a submission in April of this year, I’d wait because April dots aren’t showing up yet and it’s not actually late, as those applications were in the old system. The cool thing is, if you take a few minutes to dig into the numbers, you could extrapolate actual data rather than attributing things that don’t initially make sense to you as randomness and then complaining about the system. There’s undoubtedly some randomness in the system, but it’s the outlier as opposed to the rule. You see the dots that fall outside of the trend? What would you say, they account for about 2% or less of the dots? I’d attribute half or less of those dots as true randomness.

We all agree, it sucks to wait as long as we do for these things, and the ATF isn’t a bastion of governmental excellence. However, you can save yourself time and frustration by using your brain when interpreting the data.

Missing the point and doubling down. Awesome.

How do you feel about the 4th amendment? What’s the big deal if you have nothing to hide?

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