Response to a Congressional Inquiry
20170517 at 6:29 pm #80028
Below is a response from the NFA branch to a Congressional Inquiry after the NFA jerked an applicant around. The applicant provided me the following. I thought it is enlightening as for the numbers and the wait times. Gives some perspective if nothing else. This might also be a great way to enlighten your Congressional representatives over the inane wait times!
DTD mid-May 2017
I am in receipt of your inquiry for XXXXXXXXX,
I will need the attached consent form completed by XXXXXXXX, the National Firearms Act imposes a tax on the making and transfer of firearms defined by the Act. The law also required the registration of all NFA firearms in the National Firearms Registration and Transfer Record (NFRTR) all in accordance with 26 U.S.C. § 6103(c). The NFA was enacted by Congress as an exercise of its authority to tax. This is not in regards to XXXXXXXX personal taxes, this is his release that will authorize me to discuss the tax he paid and the transfer surrounding this tax.
Please note that the ATF website is accurate in the approximate 9 month turnaround for an ATF Form 4 to be processed. The processing times for ATF Form 4’s is approximately 9 months due to more than 184,243 pending NFA applications. In fiscal year 2007, ATF processed nearly 66,736 NFA applications. In 2016, ATF received processed more than 379,410 applications, a 469 % increase in NFA applications.
In the meantime I will research XXXXXXXXX application in order to provide you with a status.
Deputy Division Chief
U.S. Department of Justice
Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives
Office of Public and Governmental Affairs
Legislative Affairs Division (5.S-167)
20170517 at 6:42 pm #80029
The thing that really sticks out to me…….379,000 plus applications for the FISCAL YEAR (which ended 1 Oct 2016) That means that the are 184,000 plus applications that are still pending from the submissions around 12 July 2016 to 1 Oct 2016 (with 12 July the most current approximate check cash dates that have been ENTERED INTO THE DATA BASE … not randomly posted on the various threads…) that are still pending for the mid-July, August and September time frames of 2016.
In other words, about 1/2 (184,000) of all (379,000) of FY2016 submissions that took 9.5 months to process (1 Oct 2015 to 12 July 2016) are still pending. That will give you an idea of the basketball in the garden hose that awaits us.
20170525 at 11:13 am #80156
20170528 at 11:29 pm #80207
You can see the spike in wait times on the tracker graph now. We are going to see a vertical line for wait times right around 12 July to 20 July check cashed dates
20170529 at 3:58 pm #80214
FlagflyfishParticipantJoin Date: 01/06/2016
- Posts: 41
I don’t know chorizo, My form 4 was submitted from SS on 7/7 but my pending date is 7/21….I think wait times are going to top out at the 13 to 15 month timeframe… I’m at 10.5 months now..:(
20170529 at 9:02 pm #80215
I concur 15 month wait time before they get through the pre41f apps seems totally reasonable
20170530 at 9:34 am #80220
This could very well be the case for trust applicants, but it appears “individual” applicants are well into August approvals. Selfishly, being one of them, I fully expect my end of October app to be approved within the next two months or so.
20170530 at 8:27 am #80218
Eaglearcher20ParticipantJoin Date: 01/06/2016
- Posts: 50
hmm…wonder what this means for people like me who just submitted their form 4’s in May 2017? How fast will times drop after the 41f deadline?
If you look at PRE March 2016 (before the 41f panic) people were looking at 120 – 150 days on average (4-5 months). Taking that into account along with some other info such as the gun industry hurting and people waiting for the HPA to pass for buying suppressors, it makes me wonder what times will look like once the NFA gets through processing for July and August 2016 dates. Also, the NFA CLAIMS to have rearranged the branch to process more efficiently/faster.
Again, all of this makes me wonder what times will look like after they get past this massive bubble (and how long I will have to wait for my SBR and Suppressor submitted in May 2017).
20170530 at 11:58 am #80224
So just spoke with ATF and the rep told me that it took them 2.5 months to process June and that they are mid way through July. So far its been 30 days working on first two weeks of July. She said they hired 7 additional examiners and everyone has been working 7 days a week (she brought up an example of seeing approvals over Memorial Weekend), also said they are processing “thousands” applications a day. Apparently on July 19th of last year it took them 2 weeks just to enter all the forms that arrived on that day into the system, so basically the entire month of July are pre 41f applicants. She thought they will be through all pre 41F forms within the next 4-6 weeks and then it drops off substantially.
20170530 at 12:47 pm #80227
Eaglearcher20ParticipantJoin Date: 01/06/2016
- Posts: 50
I’m glad some of the people at the ATF seem to be very informed and give very detailed explanations on what is going on there.
Thanks for the info. Also, that “substantial drop off” is what I figured and can’t wait to see times start to drop!!!
20170530 at 1:03 pm #80229
Hankers20ParticipantJoin Date: 01/06/2016
- Posts: 3
I am not sure if this is the right thread, but would it be possible to see the actual counts of approvals per day? Like July 15 had # of approvals and it would update as people enter their approval dates in the tracker. It would be fun to see how many are being approved each day. I know it would not account for all since not everyone uses this sight, but would be neat to see.
- This reply was modified 3 months, 4 weeks ago by Hankers20.
20170530 at 9:28 pm #80245
trobertsParticipantJoin Date: 01/06/2016
- Posts: 6
I would be very curious to know what they expect the wait times to be for someone that files a Form 4 in the next month or so. Im going to get a suppressor the first part of next month and would love to see the wait times come down. Ive been hearing for a while that post 41f submissions have significantly hurt the suppressor industry so I know the submissions are way down.
20170531 at 3:07 pm #80266
sneaky98gtParticipantJoin Date: 01/06/2016
- Posts: 5
I’m not so sure that I subscribe to those numbers in the original post. Not sure if they’re untruthful, ill-advised, incorrect, or we’re somehow misinterpreting them, but something doesn’t exactly jive.
I called today for the first time, and was advised my 2 Form 4s were approved 5/27/2017. These 2 suppressors were purchased on 7/11/2016, and mailed on 7/12/2016. As should be obvious, that’s the very last day of pre-41F submissions. Check was cashed on 7/18/2016.
Taking the numbers in the OP at face value, there are 184k applications still pending that were submitted from just before 41F (July 10th-12th ish) until the end of the fiscal year (September 30th). I think it’s safe to say that the submissions 2.5 months immediately following 41F pale in comparison to the submissions in the 9.5 months before. So the logical conclusion is that the overwhelming majority of that 184k pending is pre-41F. Let’s say 150k.
For me to have already received my Form 4s that were mailed on July 12, then one of 2 scenarios must be true:
1. I was literally one of the last forms received, and I got lucky with my forms somehow making the top of the pile, which is 150k submissions deep.
2. The forms are still roughly in order, and 150k submissions were made after mine.
I don’t think either of these are likely.
If #1 is what has happened, then there should be lots of people with earlier check cashed dates before 7/18/16 that are still pending. Granted we don’t have great data on this, I have seen very few posts in the forums from people with dates before 7/18/16 that are still pending, so I don’t think it’s the case.
If #2 were true, then there should be lots of people with check cashed dates after 7/18/16. Not only am I not seeing this either, but I also just don’t believe that there were 150k submissions on the last day after mine. I mean, SS sent in 10k worth of forms on the last day, but that was nearly a month’s worth of surely the busiest month they’ve ever had. I don’t believe that other shops around the country also sent 140k submissions on the last day. Matter of fact, I don’t think the entire industry sent anywhere near 150k submissions even in the last several weeks before 41F.
To refute both point 1 and point 2, and to show that my data point isn’t just an anecdote, I’ve spoken to both my dealer and another dealer in my area in the last week. Both are fairly high volume suppressor shops in my area. Both said that they had received back the overwhelming majority of the pre-41F Form 4s. Each dealer only had a handful of Forms still out, around 20-30 each, and those 20-30 were all submitted in the last day or 2. So if a couple of the highest volume dealers in the area only have 50 forms still out between the 2 of them (of the hundreds they submitted in the couple weeks before 41F), then where are the other 149,950 forms coming from?
On top of this, if there were still 150k pre-41F submissions out there, I think we’d be seeing more than the few posts a day that we see around here of people complaining about their wait times.
I can’t explain it away, and my feelings are mostly based on generalized data instead of absolutes, but my thoughts are that they are very close to finishing with pre-41F submissions. With the ATF clearly working overtime (got mine on the Saturday of Memorial weekend), and the numbers I’m seeing of ~1000 a day, I think they’re going to be finished with pre-41F submissions in the next week or two.
20170531 at 3:22 pm #80270
Very close to what i was told as far as getting over the hump… i was told over the next 30 days they should be through July and part of August. I also read somewhere that SS accounted for a large percentage of all form 4’s received. So knowing that and knowing they sent 10k applications over the last several days of the deadline makes me believe 180k number is off.
20170531 at 3:39 pm #80271
Very well written sir. June will be a great forecaster
20170531 at 4:35 pm #80272
Believe what you will. However, not believing what is given you from the Division branch of the ATF to a Senator on a Congressional inquiry over what you believe with no basis in empirical data other than your back of the napkin calculations is somewhat foolish if you ask me. But then again some people believe in pink unicorns that fart rainbows…..
Have at it if that is what you want to believe, but I believe, based in the hard data provided by the ATF to a Senator, that many of you are going to be sorely disappointed.
20170531 at 7:16 pm #80278
sneaky98gtParticipantJoin Date: 01/06/2016
- Posts: 5
I don’t know. Like I said, I can’t exactly explain it with numerical data because there isn’t any good numerical data available.
But I don’t see how anyone can’t agree that it doesn’t exactly pass the sniff test. Even on a broad scope, as another poster mentioned, SS was said to have accounted for a large percentage of all the Form 4s submitted, and we KNOW that they submitted 10,000. Does it really make sense that the largest suppressor shop in the country (by FAR) submitted no more than 5%-7% of the total pre-41F rush Form 4s? That sounds a little fishy to me.
Maybe I’m lucky, but my 2 Form 4s that were mailed on the last possible day have both been approved. On top of that, the Form 1s that I e-filed just 4 days before the deadline were approved nearly 2 weeks ago. Again, could be total luck that all 4 of my forms wound up on the top of the pile, and there’s still tens of thousands left to go. I think the more likely situation is that my stuff got approved right about when it should have, and since all my stuff was submitted right at the end before 41F, there’s only a small handful left to go. The fact that not one, but two, of the largest dealers in my area have received back >90% of the applications submitted in the couple of weeks leading up to 41F strongly reinforces that thought.
I very well may eat crow when it’s all said and done, but the numbers provided by the ATF in the OP still don’t sound exactly right to me when compared to the ACTUAL data that I’m getting from real world people.
20170601 at 9:11 am #80302
Well if it came from a politician then it must be true. I also heard from a politician that she didn’t delete any emails and POTUS did not collude with Russians… Needless to say, I trust them as far as i can throw them. What i do believe is in numbers as those don’t tend to lie, and numbers are showing us that we are much closer than you think. There are multiple posts on this very website with “individual” applicants getting approvals with pending dates of early to mid August. All trust applicants are well into middle to second half of July (which it took them a month to clear the first two weeks)… and these are facts reported by unbiased individuals, not press releases from government.
Bottom line is, i find it hard to believe there is still another 9.5 months left to go through the remaining applications, even if the entire month of august are backlog applicants. There is no possible way ATF received half of the applications (184k) on the last week of the deadline when SS sent 10k and they are the biggest contributor.
As far as their statement goes, it is nothing but an attempt to buy themselves more time so when they go through them much quicker they look like heroes and if they don’t then it’s an “i told you so” situation. I see it in my line of business daily.
20170531 at 7:06 pm #80277
mattmanParticipantJoin Date: 01/06/2016
- Posts: 6
Are you thinking it could be another 3-3.5 months before we clear July?
184K submissions / 1800= 102 days/ 30= 3.4 months?
-That would place me right at 15 months
- This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by mattman.
20170607 at 5:46 pm #80424
That is exactly what I am says. Form 4’s trusts are only at 18 July 2016.
And the naysayer above who speaks of a politician…that info came from the ATF deputy director, not some politico.
20170601 at 10:49 am #80304
MarkParticipantJoin Date: 01/06/2016
- Posts: 8
Something to remember as well, there are more than just Form 4s that were submitted during those last 2 weeks. You have to consider all the Form 1s as well. Currently on the Form 1 E-file page we are only seeing approvals from July 7-9th at the moment. Yes SS submitted 10K applications, but those were Form 4 submissions. Now I’m not saying that there were 100k+ Form 1s submitted, but there were definitely quite a bit.
- This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by Mark.
20170607 at 3:33 pm #80419
All the numbers quoted in the original post are on this page…
looks like 2014 was 236k and 2015 was 308k processed…don’t know why 2007 was used as the baseline when 2015 was still a 4-6 month wait.
Not sure if that changes much in terms of opinions and processing times, thought I’d throw it out there
20170607 at 3:48 pm #80420
Optman09ParticipantJoin Date: 01/06/2016
- Posts: 4
I wonder how many of those forms are Form 3.
20170607 at 4:09 pm #80421
I created an account for the OpenATF data but it didn’t get me access to anything, oh well. NOW THEY HAVE MY EMAIL ADDRESS
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