Future Form 4 Wait Times

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This topic contains 24 replies, has 14 voices, and was last updated by  justageek 7 months, 1 week ago.

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  • #78125

    ashman
    Participant
    • Posts: 2
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    Does anyone have any insight to what the wait time may be in the future? I bought a can Monday and was just curious if it may be more like 6 months now since they’re close to getting through the July 13th deadline.

  • #78126

    geclevel
    Participant
    • Posts: 26
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    That will not be clear until after they get through the 400,000 form 4’s received after the July cutoff.

  • #78148
    BMP
    BMP
    Participant
    • Posts: 65
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    The dealer I bought my suppressor from said sales went from their stock being drained to 4-5 a month after the July cutoff. This bulk will most likely bump wait times up higher than the 8 month ATF stated wait right now.

    My check was cashed on the 6th of this month. I’m just figuring on a year wait. Anything before that will be great, if it’s after, so be it. We just got them approved in Iowa last year and I’ve waited 48 years for one! LOL

    Brad

  • #78150

    ashman
    Participant
    • Posts: 2
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    I’d guess they should be caught up with the deadline rush in about 3 months since they only have a month left (they’re in mid June now) so maybe I’m only looking at 6-7 months. Glad you got one Brad!

    • #78151
      BMP
      BMP
      Participant
      • Posts: 65
      Join Date: 02/27/2017

      I’m glad I got one too! My MK12 Mod 0 clone is looking naked without an AEM-5!

      Brad

  • #78153

    NikDFW
    Participant
    • Posts: 10
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    I have been waiting 8 months almost to the date for my Omega. I am not even assigned to an examiner yet; so I am guessing anywhere from 1-3 months for my approval (maybe longer). I know there are others behind me-but still before the July 13th cutoff date. Silencer Shop reportedly has 10,000-12,000 applications right at the cutoff date. It could take 2-3 months just to get through their backlog; not to mention the hundreds of other dealers around the country with submitted business. I would imagine the “8-month” wait will remain long after 41F.

    • #78202

      gunningreg33
      Participant
      • Posts: 42
      Join Date: 02/27/2017

      I feel your pain, over 8.5 months since my checks were cashed…and like @gddean mentioned below, as we get more input data for the check cashed dates in the June 12-20, 2016 dates, I’m pretty comfy in presuming that the rest of this month will likely be dealing with the first 18 or 20 days of June…so if we’re lucky they might finish June 2016 by the first of May 2017.

      Got to love buying the damn things 13 months ago (1 was in stock but form 3’d to my SOT from the mid-west, 2 others were coming from manufacturer/distributers and were not “in stock” items), hence the delay until mid-June for the Form 4’s. Life is full of “should have’s,” and even with this being an ideal example, I’m just glad I’m more than 75% through, but I’ll hold off for a while (or HPA passing) before pushing through anymore Forms to them.

  • #78172

    Gddean
    Participant
    • Posts: 11
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    I don’t believe there is any real science to this waiting game the ATF makes us play, but by reading through all the posts you may be able to pick up on a few trends. On March 14th it will be nine months since I purchased my first two suppressors in Iowa on a trust. Being a newbie to the this buy and wait game, I have noticed the following. The data here is only as good as the suppliers, heck some of the information supplied by the ATF agents calls is not even that good. The bottom line is we have no way of knowing how many forms were submitted. All we can do is watch check cashed dates and approved dates. I was told six months back in June, that date has come and gone. I don’t believe there is a real reliable answer to your question because of all the unknowns. But the next two weeks we will get a good idea if the summited forms are ramping up. The approval gap between June 13th and June 20th may give us some indications of how big this bubble really is. For now Brad, welcome to the group and enjoy the wait!

  • #78386

    Gddean
    Participant
    • Posts: 11
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    Looks like the June 20th and 21st Forms are rolling right through, So things might be still be moving along. Cross your fingers. Looking for the first July Forms! It’s like playing the Lottery, hoping your numbers come up.

  • #78474

    Matt256
    Participant
    • Posts: 1
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    Just called the NFA Branch and asked about wait times. My check was cashed 08 Sep 2016. The fellow I talked with said that September’s Form 4s should start hitting them toward the end of this June. We will see.

  • #78636

    Jgibso20229
    Participant
    • Posts: 3
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    Check cashed 21 June 2016

    FFL received stamp 24 March 2017

  • #78858

    Andrew
    Participant
    • Posts: 11
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    Long time lurker but this thread got me wanting to do a mathematical analysis… And since I bought my 1st can in October and then an SBR in January and another can in February and math and statistics is what I do for a living… well I thought I’d see what the data showed…

    SO when I look at the raw data from the tables it real apparent that once we start seeing July 14th dates things are going to start going real fast from an approval standpoint. It makes sense since that is the cutoff for 41F. That is of course unless ATF reduces its NFA workforce or if ‘Parkinson Law’ prevails (i.e. work expands to fill time available). But even if you think that ATF productivity falls by half in the next few weeks still the darkness is almost over.

    Just some averages from the table data is as follows (Based on date submitted)…

    Jan ’16 – Jun ’16 – Jul 14 16′ –
    2015 May ’16 Jul 13 ’16 Feb ’17
    Total ATF Transactions 6,772 5,058 2,592 808
    ATF Transactions per Day 18.6 33.5 60.3 3.5

    So we are at the crescendo right now. Looking at the data it makes sense due to news we have heard of — we’ve seen the SilencerCo layoffs. The data shows we are at a 19% rate of daily sales post 41F implementation date vs prior to 41F announcement and 6% daily sales post 41F implementation date vs post 41F announcement but prior to 41F cut-off. Of course this is predicated on folks entering data in to the website and and being as interested in all this since ’16 elections etc. etc. And of the natural tendencies to not enter data until you’re closer to thinking you should be approved… but it seems that might not be the case since averages were pretty consistent prior to 41F announcement and post 41F implementation (albeit at different rates).

    My next look is to see try to look at predicting the next 14 days of approvals (July 1+). All I am certain of right now is dawn for me feels not as far away as it was a few months ago… Hang tight everyone…

  • #78859

    Andrew
    Participant
    • Posts: 11
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    My table is all jacked up… it basically says…

    2015 – 6772 table entries – 18.6 per day
    Jan ’16 – May ’16 – 5058 table entries – 33.5 per day
    Jun ’16 – Jul 13 ’16 – 2592 table entries – 60.3 per day
    Jul 14 ’16 – Feb ’17 – 808 table entries – 3.5 per day

    • #78860

      Gddean
      Participant
      • Posts: 11
      Join Date: 02/27/2017

      The only comment I will add to this is I called last week to check on two form 4 Suppressors, What I original thought was a pending status of July 7th turned out to be the submitted date. The pending date was July 22. So give or take 4-5 days for the mail. It took close to 10 days to enter the information. Looking back I see most items in June are seeing 3 to 4 days to process. That tells me we are about to see a huge bubble around mid July. This only makes sense if we believe the 10K plus forms that were reported to sent in meet the July 13th deadline On a positive note, the gal did tell me I should have my stamps by the end of April, so I’m crossing my fingers.

    • #78868

      xray2040
      Participant
      • Posts: 22
      Join Date: 02/27/2017

      Hi Andrew,

      41F effectively turns all submissions into ‘individual’ applications (actually hurts trust/corp. filers b/c for a single purchase background checks & mugshot/fingerprint database comparisons have to be run on each RP); how long has it historically taken the NFA Branch to clear individual Form 1/4’s?

      This would probably be a better ‘apples to apples’ comparison, adding a ‘trust/corp.’ processing time penalty of ~25-40% for RP background checks. What do you think?

  • #79086

    Gddean
    Participant
    • Posts: 11
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    Looks like approvals are starting to come to a crawl again. The first three weeks of June moved right along. It has been two weeks now and we are still processing the 4th week of June cash dates. I was hoping we turned the corner, but it looks like we are going the wrong way again. I am hoping to see more July approvals soon, but I am pretty much looking at a May approval now.

    • #79105

      NikDFW
      Participant
      • Posts: 10
      Join Date: 02/27/2017

      One thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing some July 1 approvals. That is likely the last day we will see before July 5th since the 2nd/3rd are the weekend and the 4th is a federal holiday. Am I incorrect in assuming we should not see any pending dates on the 2nd-4th of July? If so, then we will see a rapid fast forward to the 5th and beyond shortly.

      • #79108

        mrlovelace
        Participant
        • Posts: 36
        Join Date: 02/27/2017

        That would be awesome! I forgot all about July 4!!! My form 4 went pending on July 6. Boy oh Boy how great that would be to get that call next week before Easter weekend.

  • #79098

    NikDFW
    Participant
    • Posts: 10
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    About how many form 4s do they process in a single day?

  • #79109

    justageek
    Participant
    • Posts: 6
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    we will see a rapid fast forward to the 5th and beyond shortly.

    Hope so. One of my two remaining went pending on the 5th. The other was on the 12th.

    • #79230

      justageek
      Participant
      • Posts: 6
      Join Date: 02/27/2017

      Griffin Checkmate QD

      Ordered from SS 5/9/2016
      Form 4 sent 6/26/2016
      Check cashed 7/4/2016
      Pending 7/5/2016
      Approved 4/6/2017
      Stamp in hand 4/13/2017

      275 Days

  • #79113

    Sandhills
    Participant
    • Posts: 2
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    Where are they at for form 4 individual?

  • #79119
    BMP
    BMP
    Participant
    • Posts: 65
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    End of June early July 2016 check cashed dates.

    Brad

  • #79132

    John
    Participant
    • Posts: 1
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    On 12-15-16 had form 4 transfer from individual to my class 3 dealer for transfer to me. Is the transfer to a class 3 from individual in different state any quicker than form 4 transfer to individual.

  • #79190

    mrlovelace
    Participant
    • Posts: 36
    Join Date: 02/27/2017

    I’m trying to figure out why do they always say they haven’t started approving July forms yet but yet seeing July approval dates ?…

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