Reply To: Response to a Congressional Inquiry
- Posts: 5
I’m not so sure that I subscribe to those numbers in the original post. Not sure if they’re untruthful, ill-advised, incorrect, or we’re somehow misinterpreting them, but something doesn’t exactly jive.
I called today for the first time, and was advised my 2 Form 4s were approved 5/27/2017. These 2 suppressors were purchased on 7/11/2016, and mailed on 7/12/2016. As should be obvious, that’s the very last day of pre-41F submissions. Check was cashed on 7/18/2016.
Taking the numbers in the OP at face value, there are 184k applications still pending that were submitted from just before 41F (July 10th-12th ish) until the end of the fiscal year (September 30th). I think it’s safe to say that the submissions 2.5 months immediately following 41F pale in comparison to the submissions in the 9.5 months before. So the logical conclusion is that the overwhelming majority of that 184k pending is pre-41F. Let’s say 150k.
For me to have already received my Form 4s that were mailed on July 12, then one of 2 scenarios must be true:
1. I was literally one of the last forms received, and I got lucky with my forms somehow making the top of the pile, which is 150k submissions deep.
2. The forms are still roughly in order, and 150k submissions were made after mine.
I don’t think either of these are likely.
If #1 is what has happened, then there should be lots of people with earlier check cashed dates before 7/18/16 that are still pending. Granted we don’t have great data on this, I have seen very few posts in the forums from people with dates before 7/18/16 that are still pending, so I don’t think it’s the case.
If #2 were true, then there should be lots of people with check cashed dates after 7/18/16. Not only am I not seeing this either, but I also just don’t believe that there were 150k submissions on the last day after mine. I mean, SS sent in 10k worth of forms on the last day, but that was nearly a month’s worth of surely the busiest month they’ve ever had. I don’t believe that other shops around the country also sent 140k submissions on the last day. Matter of fact, I don’t think the entire industry sent anywhere near 150k submissions even in the last several weeks before 41F.
To refute both point 1 and point 2, and to show that my data point isn’t just an anecdote, I’ve spoken to both my dealer and another dealer in my area in the last week. Both are fairly high volume suppressor shops in my area. Both said that they had received back the overwhelming majority of the pre-41F Form 4s. Each dealer only had a handful of Forms still out, around 20-30 each, and those 20-30 were all submitted in the last day or 2. So if a couple of the highest volume dealers in the area only have 50 forms still out between the 2 of them (of the hundreds they submitted in the couple weeks before 41F), then where are the other 149,950 forms coming from?
On top of this, if there were still 150k pre-41F submissions out there, I think we’d be seeing more than the few posts a day that we see around here of people complaining about their wait times.
I can’t explain it away, and my feelings are mostly based on generalized data instead of absolutes, but my thoughts are that they are very close to finishing with pre-41F submissions. With the ATF clearly working overtime (got mine on the Saturday of Memorial weekend), and the numbers I’m seeing of ~1000 a day, I think they’re going to be finished with pre-41F submissions in the next week or two.